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Jul 06
2008

Tanzania Jittery about East Africa Common Market

Posted by Ritch in Untagged 

Ritch

I read this article in The Guardian newspaper (a Tanzanian daily) on July the 5th, 2008.

MP raises fears over EA market
 
2008-07-05 10:11:54
By Hannah Mwandoloma

, Dodoma

 

The government has been urged to take national interests at heart before making a final endorsement of the East African common market protocol.

Presenting views of the parliamentary opposition on the 2008/2009 budget estimates of the East African Co-operation ministry yesterday, shadow minister Abubakar Bakary said there were a number of things that the government needed to consider before adopting the proposed code of regional trade.

Bakary said Kenya`s economy was much more advanced, especially in the area of industrial development, compared to Tanzania`s.

``Our worry is that Tanzania will turn into a dumping ground for Kenyan goods. We want to know how far we are prepared to deal with that kind of situation,`` he said.

He said the grace period that newly admitted member countries of Rwanda and Burundi had been given for preparing their economies was far too short.

Bakary added that Tanzania had enormous land resources, unlike its neighbours.

He cautioned that the opening up of borders could lead the country into a land crisis.

On employment, Bakary said with the common market protocol and free movement of labour, many Tanzanians risked losing jobs to highly educated and competitive Kenyans.

``It is true that most of Tanzanian youths are not fluent in English compared to Kenyans and Ugandans. Our young people will always be getting lower posts in their own country. Is this what we want?`` queried Bakary.

Vita Kawawa (Namtumbo, CCM), who presented an assessment of the budget by the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs, Security and Defence, said the government should draft a law protecting citizens from foreign land owners.

Earlier, tabling his ministry?s 2008/09 budget estimates, Dr Diodorus Kamala, the minister for East African Co-operation, told the House that East African leaders had agreed that discussions on the common market among member countries had to commence in July 2006 and be finalised by December this year.

``I expect the House to ratify the East African Common Market protocol by June, next year and the implementation will start in early 2010,`` said Kamala.

Dr Kamala told the House that the government would take into account all recommendations concerning the Common Market.

He asked the House to endorse 10,941,750,000/- annual estimates for his ministry, 10,359,750,000/- for recurrent and 582,000,000/- for development expenditure.


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Stephen Wanyama
immigration
written by Stephen Wanyama , July 07, 2008
Find below a paper underlining just how important migration (and especially that of skilled workers) is for economic progress. That American engine is powered very much by the skills of Asian and increasingly African expertise. The Australians and the British are also keen on tapping this. There are segments of an economy that a country absolutely needs to grow in order to attract investment and the innovation needed for wider growth, it is nearly always impossible to fill this up with indigenous talent. PDF warning.
In this paper I have demonstrated the important boost to innovation per capita provided by skilled immigration to the United States in 1950-2000. A calculation of the effect of immigration in the 1990-2000 period puts the magnitudes of the effects in context.

The 1990-2000 increase from 2.2% to 3.5% in the share of the population composed of immigrant college graduates increased patenting by at least 81:3 = 10:4%, and perhaps by as much as 18%. The increase in the share of post-college immigrants from 0.9% to 1.6% increased patenting by at least 10.5% and perhaps by as much as 24%. The increase from 0.30% to 0.55% in the share of workers who are immigrant scientists and engineers increased patenting by at least 13% but probably by less than 23%.

While I find evidence for the crowding-out of natives in the short run, in the long run there is evidence for the reverse: that skilled natives are attracted to states or occupations with skilled immigrants. The results hint that skilled immigrants innovate more than their native counterparts, especially if they are scientists or engineers. If correct, the result could reflect higher education of immigrants within skill categories, or positive selection of immigrants in terms of ability to innovate. However, the effect of natives is not as well identified econometrically as the effect of immigrants.
If the Tanzanians, or Kenyans had any brains about them, they really would open their borders to the top talents from other nations.
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Amir Ibrahim
more papers
written by Amir Ibrahim , July 07, 2008
Wanyama I know where you got that paper. Anyhow, here is another one. PDF also.

The stats are unanimous about two things the positive selection of talent into migration and the positive sorting of migrants across destinations on account of optimal returns.

The more educated parts of a population are more likely to emigrate; and more-educated migrants are more likely to settle in destination countries with higher rewards for the skilled.
In our selection regression, we find that migrants for a source-destination pair are more educated relative to non-migrants, the larger is the skill-related difference in earnings between the destination country and the source. That is, positive selectivity is stronger where the reward to skill in the destination is relatively large. This result obtains for wage differences expressed in levels, but not in logs........Positive sorting is a general prediction of income maximization. In our sorting regression, the relative stock of more-educated migrants in a destination is increasing in the level earnings difference between high and low-skilled workers. This correlation is stronger when wage differences are adjusted for taxes, implying that migrants weigh post-tax earnings when choosing a destination.

Now with special regard to Richard's blog,

Our analysis also shows that language, history, and policy affect migration. English-speaking destinations draw higher-skilled immigrants than other destinations, whereas former colonial powers draw lower-skilled immigrants from their former colonies than from other source countries. Destinations with liberal refugee and asylum policies draw relatively low-skilled immigrants, all else equal.


This also touches on the Wanyama Waweru debate here about government spending.
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Amir Ibrahim
video
written by Amir Ibrahim , July 07, 2008
I just added a video, from the BBC's White Season about similar fears here in the UK, well maybe not quite the same but not too far off. Link
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