Last week, international attention shifted focus from the excitement of the Beijing Olympics to yet another troubled dispute in the caucuses region.
The de facto- independent regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia , both landlocked in the Georgian state, have continually pursued the dreams of independence from Georgian, since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Rumors of war between Russia, Georgia and the South Ossetia and Abkhazia rebels have spilled all over international headlines, as Russian troops vaguely attempt to halt hostilities within the disputed territories. There are many conflicting reports as to what resulted in the latest dispute. Georgia’s failed military quest into the break away region of Ossetia, was a mere attempt to unite the autonomous region into what Georgia claims is a legitimate part of the Georgian nation state.
Currently, international attention is fixated on the actions of the Russian military and whether or not Russia will agree to halt hostilities between in the break away regions. Presently, an estimated 2000 deaths have been reported as a result of the Russian incursion and the offense between Russian troops, supporting the South Ossetia rebels and the Georgian Army. Furthermore, an estimated 10,000 refugees have fled Georgia into Russia and other surrounding regions
Russian president Dmtry Medvedev has defended the Russian incursion as an interest of security, as Russian troops continue to bombard the town of Gori. Presently the Kremlin is under considerable international pressure to halt all military incursions into the Georgian region. Many commentators believe that this is simply another attempt by Russia to overthrow the democratically elected government of Mikheil Saakashvili , who overthrew Eduard Shevardnadze in a bloodless coup in 2005, known internationally as the Rose Revolution. President Saakashvili, professed that his rise to power, was seen as a crucial catalyst in uniting a divided Georgia, one that would open up a threshold for Georgia’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Perhaps this was an attempt by Georgian troops to pursue their relentless dream of unity.
In an article in the August 11 edition of Newsweek, John Barry argued that this was an attempt by Russia to weaken a pro western democratically elected state and to exploit local grievances. There is also suspicion in and amongst the Georgian government that the Russian government advertently seeks to protect the interests of the secessionists in South Ossetia, who seek independence from the Georgian state. With European Union backing, especially from French President Nicholas Sarkozy, Russia and Georgia have formulated a truce agreement and the EU is considering deploying a peacekeeping contingency to monitor the truce. On the other hand, Russian troops continue to maintain a striking presence in the region, as more Russian troops enter the town of Tskhinvali. Sarkozy’s unclear yet rigorous plan to persuade Russia to modify their troop deployment and withdrawal from Georgian towns may inevitably not result in a steady compromise between President’s Saakashvili and Medvedev.
It appears that Russian actions are rather ambiguous and suspicious as their inconsistent withdrawal from South Ossetia is coupled by the entrance of more troops. Perhaps the inconsistent withdrawals and incursions is an attempt by the Russians to appease the international community and to deter the international outcry over it’s pursuits in the Georgian region.
The underlying question on everyone’s mind is who is to blame and how did this come at such an unprecedented time in 2008, with international focus on the Beijing Olympics as well as the upcoming US election. To begin with there are numerous factors that account for the hostilities between Georgia and Russia and for those between Georgia and the secessionists.
The battle between the Ossetia secessionist with consistent Russian support and Georgia is a stark reminder that centuries of ethnic conflict continue to be widespread in the region. However, ethnic conflict in the caucuses is not a new phenomenon. This is certainly not the first time that the Russian Federation has exploited the grievances of the South Ossetia secessionists to its own advantage. South Ossetia wants to unite with North Ossetes, under the guise of bringing the Ossetes peoples into their own state. However, this has severe implications for the unity of Georgia as Georgia believes that the disputed territories are an irrevocable part of Georgia’s territorial and national integrity not to mention that Georgia still claims that the disputed territories are an essential legal and political part of the Georgian nation state. The end of the Soviet Union was coupled with increasing nationalist sentiments from regions such as South Ossetia.
The current conflict not only reflects the bitter Russian and Western divide prevalent during much of the cold war period, but is a resounding reminder to the international community that the divide between pro western and pro Russian allegiance is very much prevalent in the region today. This divide has raised many issues about the nature of intervention and the responses that has been generated by the west. The question is what type of intervention do the Georgians want? There has also been considerable criticism of the particularly subtle intervention of the US and the failure by the west to take action against Russia.
President Saakashvili has already expressed his disappointment by the lack of western involvement despite US president George W Bush’s offer of humanitarian assistance to the region.
What these critics don’t seem to realize is that any drastic intervention from the west could really ignite the cold war tensions between the region and it could further exacerbate the pro west and pro Russia divide already in the region. One this is for sure, this conflict has really solidified Russia’s grip on the break away regions of South Ossetia and Abhazia, especially after Russia’s staunch affirmation that the break away regions have no desire to remain a legitimate part of Georgia.
The fundamental question that needs to be addressed is again, who is the aggressor. With such excessive international attention focused on Russian actions that the strength of Georgian democracy has become almost exaggerated. It’s true that the small nation does not have the military might to defend itself against the Russian incursion and furthermore with the current disappointment by the west’s failure to intervene, many Georgians are doubting the unequivocal and unconditional support that from it’s US allies. This may another attempt by Russia to assert it’s dominance in the region but one thing that we know for certain is that this entire conflict could be a crucial test for the future of Russian/ US relations. Perhaps that is why the criticism from the west has proved mild but will the US really sit still in the dawn of a new era of Russian imperialism or a re ignited cold war?
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